Global Olive Oil Prices Set to Drop Amid Recovery in Production

Global olive oil prices are expected to decrease as production levels return to normal after two years of prolonged drought and record temperatures. The International Olive Council (COI) has projected global production to reach 3,200,000 tons, restoring the average levels seen in previous years.

The Turkish government has lifted its olive oil export ban, a move seen as strategic by the Ministries of Agriculture and Trade. However, Turkey plans to release existing stocks gradually to avoid market disruption. This decision is expected to contribute to the stabilization of global olive oil prices.

Why this matters: The global olive oil market has a significant impact on the economy and food security, affecting millions of people worldwide. A decrease in prices could lead to increased consumption, benefiting consumers and potentially boosting the industry's growth.

Despite the challenging conditions over the past two years, certain countries have managed to achieve notable success in olive oil production and quality. Greece experienced its worst harvest in a decade, while Italy also saw a significant decrease in production. Yet, producers from these and other countries, including Spain, Turkey, and the United States, earned record-breaking accolades at the 2024 NYIOOC World Olive Oil Competition.

Croatian olive growers, for example, produced 3,500 tons of olive oil in the 2023/24 crop year, about 10% below the average of the previous four years. Despite this, they achieved an impressive 82% success rate at the NYIOOC, earning 80 awards from 97 entries. Ante Vulin, owner of Antino, attributed this success to the country's tradition of growing healthy fruits and producing premium oil through cold pressing.

The prolonged drought and record temperatures have significantly impacted consumer behavior, particularly in Italy. Rising prices and lower availability have led to changes in purchase habits, with 48% of Italian households continuing to buy as much olive oil as they did in previous years, despite the challenges.

In addition to the production recovery, various regions have been focusing on improving water efficiency to combat the effects of climate change. California, for instance, is expected to become drier in the long term, prompting farmers to adopt more water-efficient practices.

As global olive oil production stabilizes, the market is likely to see a decrease in prices, benefiting consumers worldwide. The return to normal production levels, coupled with strategic measures by key producing countries, signals a positive outlook for the olive oil industry.

Key Takeaways

• Global olive oil production to reach 3,200,000 tons, restoring average levels.
• Turkey lifts olive oil export ban, to release stocks gradually to avoid market disruption.
• Decrease in prices could lead to increased consumption, benefiting consumers and industry growth.
• Certain countries achieve success in olive oil production and quality despite challenging conditions.
• Global olive oil production stabilizes, signaling a positive outlook for the industry.