NATO's Baltic Sea Dominance Heightens Tensions with Russia

The Baltic Sea, now largely enclosed by NATO nations following Finland and Sweden's accession, has emerged as a potential flashpoint between Russia and the West. The control of lightly defended islands such as Finland's Åland Islands and Sweden's Gotland has become a critical issue in the region's security dynamics.

Why this matters: The Baltic Sea's strategic importance and NATO's increased presence in the region have significant implications for global security and the balance of power between Russia and the West. As tensions escalate, the potential consequences include increased military conflicts, economic sanctions, and a heightened risk of miscalculation.

Finland and Sweden's joining of NATO has nearly completed the alliance's encirclement of the Baltic Sea, consolidating allied defense efforts in the region. Despite NATO's newfound dominance, the Russian Federation's influence remains a significant threat, and the alliance faces challenges in defending against and deterring Russia in this part of Europe.

The Baltic Sea is crucial for NATO's defense of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as reinforcements coming via the sea are vital for bolstering their defense. Russia also relies on the same sea lines for significant parts of its trade, transport, and to supply its Baltic enclave, Kaliningrad.

NATO and the United States face the challenge of preparing for both defensive and offensive aspects of naval warfare in the Baltic Sea. To deter, defend, and win any engagement, NATO's littoral allies should focus on cultivating expertise related to the distinctive features of the Baltic Sea, such as its shallow waters. The alliance's Baltic defense concept should reflect that the Baltic Sea is not an uncontested rear area for the three Baltic states' defense.

In a recent development, Russia's Defense Ministry proposed a revision to the country's maritime border in the eastern Baltic Sea. The proposal, which cited a Soviet measurement from 1985, was posted on an official portal but was deleted without explanation. This move has raised concerns among NATO member states.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson remarked, "Russia can't unilaterally decide on new borders." Finnish President Alexander Stubb added, "Finland acts as always: calmly and based on facts." Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis described the move as "an obvious escalation against the U.S.-led NATO military alliance and the European Union."

Despite moving significant elements of local Russian forces to Ukraine, grey-zone aggression continues in the region. NATO's response involves preparing for both defensive and offensive naval warfare, ensuring a distribution of forces and firepower that capitalizes on the sea's shallow waters.

The Baltic Sea remains a strategic and contested area, with NATO's presence now more pronounced following Finland and Sweden's accession. The alliance must navigate the complexities of deterring Russian aggression while maintaining robust defense capabilities in this critical region.

Key Takeaways

• NATO's encirclement of the Baltic Sea raises tensions with Russia.
• Control of lightly defended islands like Åland and Gotland is critical.
• Baltic Sea is vital for NATO's defense of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
• Russia's maritime border revision proposal sparks concerns among NATO states.
• NATO must prepare for defensive and offensive naval warfare in the region.