Nationalism's Rise Poses Challenges Amid EU Election Gains

As the European Union gears up for its parliamentary elections, far-right parties are projected to make significant strides, reflecting a growing tide of nationalism across the continent. However, infighting and scandals have left some of these groups in disarray, potentially limiting their influence and providing a much-needed reprieve for mainstream parties poised to retain a solid majority.

The upcoming election, scheduled for Sunday, will shape the 720-member European Parliament for the next five years. This legislative body plays a crucial role in adopting and amending EU proposals, as well as voting on the next European Commission president.

The campaign season has been particularly tumultuous for Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. A series of scandals, ranging from a controversial conference on deporting asylum seekers and naturalized Germans to a bribery and spying affair, have tainted the party's lead EU candidates, Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron. The AfD leadership ultimately instructed both candidates to cease campaigning.

Further compounding the party's woes, French nationalist Marine Le Pen publicly distanced her National Rally from the AfD after Krah made controversial remarks about the Nazi SS paramilitary organization. Consequently, the Identity and Democracy alliance in the European Parliament voted to expel the German party.

Unlike Italy's Giorgia Meloni, who has successfully moved her hard-right Brothers of Italy party towards the mainstream, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has struggled to achieve a similar transition. The party's future in the newly elected EU parliament remains uncertain, as it grapples with the prospect of not joining a political group.

As a result of these setbacks, the AfD's momentum in the polls has waned. While it remains the second-most popular party in Germany, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats, its support has dropped from a peak of 23% in July 2023 to 16% on June 1, according to the Insa institute.

Why This Matters: The rise of far-right parties in Europe has raised concerns about the potential erosion of democratic values and the undermining of key policy initiatives, such as those aimed at addressing migration and climate change. The EU elections will shape the political landscape and determine the direction of the bloc for the next five years.

Key Takeaways:

• Far-right parties in Europe are expected to gain seats in the EU parliamentary elections, but infighting and scandals have disrupted their momentum.
• The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been plagued by controversies, leading to the expulsion of its candidates and potential isolation in the new parliament.
• Mainstream parties are still projected to win a solid majority, providing a degree of stability and continuity in EU policies.
• The election results will significantly influence the selection of key EU leadership positions, including the European Commission president.
• Concerns remain about the potential influence of far-right parties on issues such as migration, rule of law, and climate change initiatives.