Biden's Concerns Over Independent Policies in Russia's Bordering Countries Amid Ukraine Conflict

US President Joe Biden has expressed fears that countries bordering Russia, including Poland, may pursue more independent policies if Ukraine is defeated in its ongoing conflict with Russia. This concern emerges with the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe continuing to evolve, having significant implications for NATO and the European Union.

Poland, sharing a 230km border with the heavily militarized Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, has been particularly vigilant since Russia's invasion of Ukraine over two years ago. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has been urging citizens to vote in the European elections to protect against the threat of Russian aggression. Tusk's Civic Coalition has highlighted security as a major theme, emphasizing the need for the EU to stand firm against Moscow.

"Go to vote if you don't want to go to war," Tusk has stated, underscoring the gravity of the situation. Poland has also launched a 10 billion zloty (€1.992bn) project, 'Shield East,' to reinforce its border with high-tech surveillance, trenches, and other measures. Tusk remarked, "It's to make sure the enemy knows to stay away from Poland."

Why this matters: The outcome of the Ukraine conflict has significant implications for global geopolitics and regional security. If Ukraine is defeated, it could lead to a shift in the balance of power in Eastern Europe, potentially destabilizing the region and impacting international relations.

In contrast, politicians in Slovakia and Hungary are advocating for compromise with Moscow, which involves concessions from Kyiv. However, Poland remains steadfast in its belief that the risk from Vladimir Putin's Russia is significant if Ukraine is allowed to lose the war. The main opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), while focusing on other issues like the EU's migration deal and the Green Deal, has not abandoned the theme of security completely.

The creeping militarization in Estonia, Latvia, and Poland is evident. In towns like Võru, Estonia, just 23 miles from the EU's border with Russia, signs of militarization are omnipresent. Army green trucks are a common sight, and off-duty US servicemen frequent local establishments. The expansion of military training areas is a constant symbol of Russia's aggression, creating an air of fear among residents.

Locals in these border towns are overwhelmed by the constant reminders of Russia's aggression. They are advised to keep petrol in their cars in case they need to flee, but many are reluctant to leave their families and homes. The fear of Russia's gray zone conflict, which includes cyber attacks, abduction, and sabotage, has been intensifying for over a decade.

Despite the anxiety among frontline residents, interest in the EU election remains low. Politicians are seizing upon the anxiety, hoping to convince residents to vote in the upcoming days. Poland's recent change in government, with Donald Tusk returning to power, has brought hope for relief. Tusk's return marks the end of eight years of conservative nationalist Law and Justice party rule, with the region seen as a stronghold for right-wing Euroskeptics.

The ongoing standoff between Belarus and the EU has also heightened tensions. The number of attempted illegal border crossings from Belarus into Poland has surged to almost 400 a day. Polish officials report increasingly aggressive behavior by some migrants on the Belarus side of the border, including throwing rocks, logs, and burning wood at Polish troops. Prime Minister Tusk has vowed to step up security measures, citing a coordinated operation to break the Polish border and destabilize the country.

NATO has been preparing for potential conflict with Russia, drawing up plans to send American troops to the frontlines of Europe. These plans include creating new land corridors to quickly funnel soldiers through central Europe and contingencies in case of Russian bombardment. NATO leaders agreed last year to keep 300,000 troops in a state of high readiness to defend the bloc in case of an attack on a member state.

Poland has been warning the west of complacency and has been rearming since before the invasion. The country already spends 2.4% of its GDP on defense, a figure that is expected to rise to around 4% this year. Polish officials have not ruled out sending troops to meet Russia as they plan to field the biggest army in Europe by 2035.

President Biden's concerns reflect the complex dynamics at play in Eastern Europe. As countries like Poland bolster their defenses and prepare for potential conflict, the geopolitical situation remains tense. The outcome of the Ukraine conflict will undoubtedly shape the policies and alignments of Russia's neighboring countries in the years to come.

Key Takeaways

• US President Joe Biden fears Ukraine's defeat could lead to independent policies in Russia-bordering countries, including Poland.
• Poland is bolstering its border with high-tech surveillance and trenches, citing security concerns amid Russia's aggression.
• Poland's PM Donald Tusk urges citizens to vote in EU elections to protect against Russian aggression, citing the risk of war.
• NATO is preparing for potential conflict with Russia, planning to send American troops to Europe's frontlines.
• Poland is rearming, aiming to field the biggest army in Europe by 2035, and has not ruled out sending troops to meet Russia.