Morena Party Poised for Majority in Mexican Congress, Paving Way for Constitutional Changes

Preliminary results from Mexico's National Electoral Institute indicate that the Morena party, led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is set to gain a majority in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. This development positions the party to enact constitutional changes, a prospect that has sparked concern among the opposition.

The election also marks a historic moment with Claudia Sheinbaum becoming the first woman and first Jewish person elected as president of Mexico. Sheinbaum won with a significant margin, securing between 58% and 60% of the vote. Her victory exceeded pre-election polls and has been seen as a strong endorsement of López Obrador's policies.

Morena's anticipated majority in Congress, along with its allies the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecological Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), could allow the party to pass constitutional reforms without the need for support from opposition parties. This potential for unilateral legislative power has raised alarms about the future of checks and balances in the Mexican government.

Mario Delgado, the head of the Morena party, expressed confidence in the party's sweeping victory, stating, "We're taking the whole shebang in these elections."* The party's success extends beyond the federal level, with victories in seven of the nine governorships up for grabs, including Mexico City, and supermajorities in at least 22 of the 32 state legislatures.

Why this matters: This development has significant implications for Mexico's political landscape and democratic institutions. The concentration of power in the presidency could lead to a shift in the balance of power and potentially undermine checks and balances in the government.

This election serves as a referendum on López Obrador's nearly six-year term, with a majority of the electorate endorsing his stewardship of the country. However, the opposition fears that Morena's proposed constitutional changes could concentrate power in the presidency and undermine democratic institutions.

The market reaction to the election results has been notable. The Mexican peso fell more than 4% to 17.72 against the dollar, its weakest level since November. Additionally, the stock market's benchmark IPC index dropped 6%, its largest percentage decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, amid concerns about the ruling party's economic policies.

With a qualified majority in both legislative chambers, Morena could push through controversial reforms, including those aimed at reducing government checks and balances and increasing state control over the economy. These potential changes have significant implications for Mexico's political terrain and business environment.

Later this week, the final results awaited will determine the political and economic future of Mexico hangs in the balance. The concentration of power in Morena's hands could lead to significant shifts in governance and policy, reflecting the electorate's endorsement of López Obrador's vision for the country.

Key Takeaways

• Morena party, led by President López Obrador, set to gain majority in Senate and Chamber of Deputies.
• Claudia Sheinbaum becomes first woman and Jewish person elected as President of Mexico.
• Morena's majority could allow for unilateral constitutional reforms, raising concerns about checks and balances.
• Election results spark market reaction, with Mexican peso falling 4% and stock market dropping 6%.
• Concentration of power in Morena's hands could lead to significant shifts in governance and policy.