Georgia's Democracy Faces Crisis as Ivanishvili's Influence Grows

Georgia's democracy and independence are under significant threat as Bidzina Ivanishvili, a reclusive businessman with ties to Russia, pushes the country away from the West and into Russia's sphere of influence. Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, wields immense power despite claiming to have withdrawn from frontline politics.

Recent developments have heightened concerns. A mob of around 60 masked men attacked the headquarters of Georgia's largest opposition party, United National Movement (UNM), causing significant damage and threatening the safety of staff inside. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, also voted to approve a controversial bill targeting independent press and NGOs as 'foreign agents,' a move condemned by Western partners.

The bill, modeled on laws used by the Putin regime to crush opposition to the war in Ukraine, has sparked warnings that it will end Georgia's hopes of joining the European Union, a goal supported by over 80% of the Georgian population. The EU has provided over €1 billion in grants to Georgia since 2014, making it the country's single largest donor.

Why this matters: The fate of Georgia's democracy and independence has significant implications for global geopolitics and the balance of power between Russia and the West. If Georgia falls under Russian influence, it could have far-reaching consequences for regional security and stability.

State-sponsored violence and repression have escalated. Dozens of state critics, including opposition politicians, journalists, activists, and civil society representatives, have been hospitalized in attacks by security forces in recent weeks. Hundreds of others have received menacing anonymous phone calls and death threats, with some forced to flee the country ahead of politically motivated prosecution, sparking fears of a crackdown.

UNM Secretary General Petre Tsiskarishvili described the attacks as a 'catalogue of violent crackdowns against opposition voices in Georgia.' He added, 'Protesters have been beaten and opposition leaders terrorised as Ivanishvili's supporters wage an increasingly dirty war designed to help them hold onto power.'

International response has been swift. The US and its European allies have condemned the bill, with the US Congress preparing sanctions against Georgia. The State Department announced visa bans for individuals responsible for or complicit in undermining democracy in Georgia, including their family members. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has ordered a comprehensive review of bilateral cooperation between the US and Georgia.

NATO's Parliamentary Assembly has asserted its commitment to Georgia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, democracy, and aspiration to join NATO. The EU has warned that the adoption of the foreign agents law would negatively impact Georgia's EU path. NATO and the EU have threatened to support protesters if the law is not withdrawn.

Georgia stands at a crossroads. The ruling Georgian Dream party's push towards Russia's sphere of influence, coupled with escalating violence and repression, threatens the country's democracy and independence. With nationwide elections scheduled for October, the outcome will be pivotal for Georgia's future.

Key Takeaways

• Georgia's democracy is under threat from Bidzina Ivanishvili, a businessman with Russian ties.
• A controversial "foreign agents" bill targets independent press and NGOs, sparking Western condemnation.
• Escalating violence and repression have hospitalized dozens of state critics and opposition figures.
• The US and EU have condemned the bill, with sanctions and visa bans threatened against Georgia.
• Nationwide elections in October will be pivotal for Georgia's future and its relations with the West.