Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni Gains Influence in Europe Amid Election Maneuvering

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is emerging as a significant figure in European politics, drawing attention from both traditional center-right parties and nationalist rivals ahead of the June European elections.

Meloni's influence has attracted notable figures such as Ursula von der Leyen, the center-right European People's Party (EPP) leader, and Marine Le Pen, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) leader. Von der Leyen seeks Meloni's support to secure a second term as European Commission President, while Le Pen aims to unite the European Parliament's hard-right parties into a far-right supergroup.

Giorgia Meloni's growing influence in European politics has significant implications for the future of the EU, as her strategic decisions could shape the political environment and impact the balance of power. Her alignment with either von der Leyen or Le Pen could have far-reaching consequences for European policies and relationships.

Polling projections by Euronews suggest that the combined forces of Le Pen's Identity and Democracy (ID) group and Meloni's European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) could win up to 144 seats in the European Parliament. This potential coalition could surpass the center-left and liberals, becoming the second-largest political force.

Marine Le Pen's RN party is leading in the polls, with a projected 30% of the French vote in June. The party has moderated its Eurosceptic stance and distanced itself from the more radical, pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which was recently expelled from ID.

Ursula von der Leyen has praised Meloni's pro-EU and pro-Ukraine credentials since she took office in 2022, positioning her party as a credible partner in Brussels. However, von der Leyen has explicitly blacklisted Le Pen's RN because of its historical sympathy towards Russia.

Analysts are divided on whether Meloni can manage the courtship from both von der Leyen and Le Pen. Nicolai von Ondarza, a political scientist, remarked, *'Meloni finds herself with two outstretched hands, one from Le Pen, the other from von der Leyen. Meloni will be able to take only one.' * In contrast, Francesco Nicoli from Bruegel believes that *'these two options, Le Pen and von der Leyen, are actually not necessarily in contradiction.'*

Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other center-left allies have warned von der Leyen against forming a coalition with far-right partners. Scholz emphasized that the next Commission should not rely on far-right support, highlighting the potential risks of normalizing cooperation with radical parties.

Meloni's growing influence is also evident in the turmoil within the far-right camp. The expulsion of AfD from the ID group has opened the possibility of a right-wing reshuffle, with Le Pen considering alliances with other nationalist leaders such as Viktor Orbán of Hungary's Fidesz party.

With the European elections approaching, Meloni's strategic decisions will likely shape the future political terrain of the EU. Whether she aligns with von der Leyen or Le Pen, her influence is set to have significant implications for European politics.

Key Takeaways

• Italian PM Giorgia Meloni emerges as a key figure in European politics.
• Meloni's support is sought by Ursula von der Leyen and Marine Le Pen.
• A potential Meloni-Le Pen coalition could win up to 144 EU Parliament seats.
• Meloni's alignment with von der Leyen or Le Pen will impact EU policies and relationships.
• Meloni's strategic decisions will shape the future of European politics.