Maduro's Border Dispute with Guyana Backfires as Ali Strengthens International Ties

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has reignited a longstanding border dispute with Guyana over the Essequibo region, ostensibly to divert attention from Venezuela's domestic economic and political crises. However, this strategy appears to have backfired, as Guyanese President Dr. Irfaan Ali has bolstered international alliances with the United States and Brazil.

Maduro's recent actions include ordering state-owned oil and mineral companies to grant exploration licenses for deposits in the contested region, escalating tensions with Guyana. In response, President Ali has intensified security measures and engaged the US military to help protect the oil-rich Essequibo region. The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to hold a closed-door meeting on the issue, where both nations will present their cases.

The Essequibo region is a significant source of revenue for Guyana, housing the expansive Starbroek block oil and gas field discovered in 2015. Guyana's economy has seen exponential growth, with a 63% growth rate in 2022, making it the third-fastest growing oil-producing country outside of OPEC from 2020 to 2023.

Why this matters: The revival of the border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has significant implications for regional stability and global oil markets. If the situation escalates, it could lead to increased tensions between the US and Venezuela, and potentially disrupt global oil supplies.

Maduro's revival of the border dispute is seen as an attempt to distract from Venezuela's domestic issues as he seeks a third consecutive presidential term. Satellite imagery analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has shown a military buildup along the disputed border since early February, indicating Venezuela's willingness to use military force.

Guyana has insisted that the Essequibo region is within its borders and views Maduro's actions as a threat to its territorial integrity. The United States has expressed unwavering support for Guyana's sovereignty, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken affirming this stance in a recent conversation with President Ali. Brazil's military is also on alert as tensions rise.

The border dispute between Guyana and Venezuela dates back to the 19th century but has intensified in recent years following massive oil discoveries off Guyana's coast. With elections looming, Maduro's strategy appears to be aimed at creating a sense of urgency and possibly justifying delaying or canceling the presidential vote.

Ryan Berg, CSIS Director for the Americas Program, has noted that Maduro could use the 'imminent threat of invasion' to derail or delay the elections. Recent videos and images posted by Venezuela's Strategic Operational Command Chief Domingo Hernandez Lárez have shown increased military activity near Anacoco Island, further heightening tensions.

As the situation unfolds, the international community will closely watch the developments in the Essequibo region. The upcoming UN Security Council meeting will be a critical platform for both nations to present their cases and seek international support.

Key Takeaways

• Venezuela's President Maduro reignites border dispute with Guyana over Essequibo region.
• Maduro's move seen as attempt to divert attention from Venezuela's economic and political crises.
• Guyana boosts security, engages US and Brazil to defend oil-rich Essequibo region.
• UN Security Council to hold closed-door meeting on the issue, with both nations presenting cases.
• Escalation could lead to increased US-Venezuela tensions and disrupt global oil supplies.