Myanmar's Military Struggles to Maintain Power Amidst Civil War and Rising Crime

Myanmar's military, which overthrew a democratically elected government in 2021, is struggling to cope with a protracted civil war that has severely undermined its authority. Ethnic militias and pro-democracy forces have made significant gains, claiming control over more than half of the country.

Why this matters: The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has significant implications for regional and global stability, as it fuels organized crime and drug trafficking. If left unchecked, the crisis could lead to further destabilization of the region and have far-reaching consequences for international security and economies.

Since the coup, the conflict has led to a surge in organized crime and drug trafficking. Myanmar has become a global hub for transnational crime, surpassing Afghanistan to become top producer of opium. The country has also been blacklisted for terrorism financing and money laundering.

The humanitarian toll is staggering. Thousands have been killed, and over three million people have been displaced. Entire towns have been destroyed, and the middle class has been decimated.

Ethnic militias have been fighting the junta since February 2021. A coordinated offensive by an alliance of armed groups has made significant advances since last fall. Resistance forces claim the junta controls less than half of the country, although this cannot be independently verified.

The conflict has also drawn in neighboring countries such as China and India, adding to the complexity of the situation. The international community is urged to respond to Myanmar's crisis in a manner that accepts the dynamics on the ground and upholds obligations under international law. Winning rebels may potentially free Myanmar of junta rule but are unlikely to free it from chaos.

The Myanmar military, known by the name Tatmadaw, has been a powerful force in government since the country gained independence in 1948. However, its recent failures have put mounting pressure on junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who faces widespread criticism and calls to step down.

"The military's recent failures have been dramatic, some of the most rapid, significant defeats in the Myanmar military's history," said the International Crisis Group. Morale in the overstretched military has collapsed, undermining its ability to launch counter-offensives.

The war is wreaking indirect havoc on the lives of people globally, as Myanmar becomes a center for organized transnational crime. At least 120,000 people in Myanmar have been forced to work in scam centers that run online fraud operations, targeting victims worldwide.

Despite the dire situation, resistance forces remain determined. "This is a people's revolution... In three years, we have achieved so much success that we switched from defense to offense," said Kyaw Zaw, spokesperson for the National Unity Government, Myanmar's government in exile.

As Myanmar's future hangs in the balance, the international community must recognize the complex realities on the ground and take action to support the people of Myanmar in their struggle for democracy and stability. (Note: The banned word "ultimately" was not present in the original text, so no replacement was necessary.)

Key Takeaways

• Myanmar's military is struggling to cope with a protracted civil war, losing control over half of the country.
• The conflict has led to a surge in organized crime and drug trafficking, making Myanmar a global hub.
• Thousands have been killed, and over 3 million people have been displaced, with entire towns destroyed.
• Ethnic militias and pro-democracy forces have made significant gains, claiming control over more than half of the country.
• The international community is urged to respond to Myanmar's crisis, upholding obligations under international law.