Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alleges Western Plans for 'Maidan Scenario' in Georgia

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin has claimed that the West is planning to implement a new 'Maidan scenario' in Georgia by October, aiming to create a new hotspot of tension near Russia's borders. This assertion comes amid rising tensions in the region and significant political developments in Georgia.

The allegations by Mikhail Galuzin have significant implications for the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus region, potentially leading to increased tensions between Russia and the West. If the 'Maidan scenario' were to unfold, it could lead to political unrest, violence, and further destabilization in the region, with potential consequences for global security and economic stability.

Galuzin's statement, reported by the state news agency TASS, did not provide further details on the alleged plan. The term 'Maidan scenario' refers to the 2014 Ukrainian revolution that ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, leading to Russia's annexation of Crimea. The accusation appears to be part of Russia's broader strategy to maintain influence over its neighboring countries and counter their integration into Western institutions.

The claim comes at a time when Georgia is experiencing significant political turmoil. The Georgian parliamentary committee recently overruled President Salome Zurabishvili's veto of the 'foreign agent law,' paving the way for its implementation despite domestic protests and Western criticism. The law requires civil society and media organizations receiving over 20% of their funding from foreign sources to report to local authorities and submit to oversight.

Protests against the law have been ongoing in Tbilisi since April 15, with opposition forces organizing demonstrations. The opposition claims the legislation is an analogue of Russia's foreign agent law, though it is modeled on the US Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) and is considered more liberal. The ruling Georgian Dream party remains the most popular in the country, despite the controversies.

The situation in Georgia is further complicated by the broader geopolitical context. The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, alongside NATO's involvement in the region, adds layers of complexity to the tensions. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry and top officials in Kyiv have rejected comments by a top NATO official suggesting that ceding territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership could be a way to end the war.

Galuzin's claim also aligns with Russia's recent strategic moves in the South Caucasus. In late September 2023, Azerbaijan seized the Nagorno-Karabakh territory, forcing the mass exodus of around 100,000 Karabakh Armenians. Russian peacekeepers, who had maintained a presence in the region since 2020, stood by during the takeover. This event marked a significant power shift in the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan emerging as a key player with significant oil and gas resources, a strong military, and lucrative ties to both Russia and the West.

In response to Azerbaijan's takeover, Armenia has swung towards the West, while Georgia's ruling party is breaking away from three decades of close relations with Europe and the United States. Georgia has passed a controversial law to crack down on foreign influence over non-governmental organizations, inspired by Russian legislation, signaling its intent to emulate its authoritarian neighbors.

Russia's decision to remove troops from Azerbaijan is seen as a strategic move, prioritizing economic security in the South Caucasus over military presence. Russia needs business partners and sanctions-busting trade routes in the south, and the region offers a coveted new land axis to Iran.

As Georgia approaches its parliamentary elections on October 26, the political climate remains tense. The German Marshall Fund (GMF) has published a paper titled 'Georgia's 2024 Parliamentary Election: Pre-election risk assessment,' highlighting risks and vulnerabilities in Georgia's political pre-election environment. The paper warns of a volatile crisis that pits the government against its people, anticipating political violence and challenges to the legitimacy of the election.

The coming months will be critical for Georgia as it faces internal and external pressures. The allegations by Mikhail Galuzin, coupled with domestic political strife and regional power shifts, highlight the fragile state of affairs in the South Caucasus.

Key Takeaways

• Russia claims the West is planning a "Maidan scenario" in Georgia by October.
• Georgia's "foreign agent law" sparks protests, Western criticism, and Russian influence concerns.
• Azerbaijan's takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh territory shifts regional power dynamics.
• Georgia's ruling party moves away from Europe and the US, towards authoritarian neighbors.
• October parliamentary elections in Georgia face risks of political violence and legitimacy challenges.