Somalia Threatens to Expel Ethiopian Troops Over Somaliland Port Deal

Somalia has issued a stern ultimatum to Ethiopia, warning that it will expel thousands of Ethiopian troops stationed in the country by December 2024 if Ethiopia does not cancel its port access deal with breakaway Somaliland.

The dispute centers around Ethiopia's agreement to lease 20 km of Somaliland's coastline for a naval base and commercial port. Somalia views Somaliland as a breakaway region and has long opposed its attempts at independence. The deal is seen as a violation of Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Why this matters: The potential expulsion of Ethiopian troops could have significant implications for regional security and stability. If Ethiopian forces depart, a security vacuum could be exploited by Al-Shabaab militants, further destabilizing Somalia.

Somalia's National Security Advisor, Hussein Sheikh-Ali, has been vocal about the issue. He stated, "If they do not repeal the (agreement) before the end of June, or when the new mandate of the mission is decided, all Ethiopian troops, ATMIS and bilateral, will have to go." He further emphasized, "Ethiopia cannot be an ally and at the same time an aggressor."

Ethiopian troops play a significant role in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which is scheduled to fully withdraw by the end of 2024. Additionally, an estimated 5,000-7,000 Ethiopian soldiers are stationed in Somalia under a bilateral agreement to help combat Al-Shabaab militants.

The potential expulsion of Ethiopian troops could have significant implications for regional security. Security experts and diplomats warn that a security vacuum could be exploited by Al-Shabaab if Ethiopian forces depart. Somalia's state minister for foreign affairs, Ali Omar, stated, "Given the current political climate, it will not be possible to have ENDF be part of AU-led mission."

Relations between Somalia and Ethiopia have deteriorated since the port deal was announced earlier this year. In April, Somalia expelled Ethiopian Ambassador Muktar Mohamed Ware and recalled its envoy to Addis Ababa, citing Ethiopian government actions that violate Mogadishu's internal security.

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to fully withdraw and hand over security responsibilities to the Somali state by the end of 2024. Somalia has requested a slower drawdown because of ongoing security concerns. A smaller peacekeeping force is expected to take over, with Somalia reportedly requesting that Ethiopia be excluded from contributing troops.

The situation continues to unfold, and its outcome will depend on how the parties involved will handle this challenging scenario. The expulsion of Ethiopian troops could further destabilize Somalia, creating a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab militants could exploit.

Key Takeaways

• Somalia threatens to expel Ethiopian troops by Dec 2024 if port deal with Somaliland isn't scrapped.
• Ethiopian troops play a crucial role in combating Al-Shabaab militants in Somalia.
• Expulsion of Ethiopian troops could create a security vacuum, destabilizing Somalia further.
• Somalia opposes Somaliland's independence and views the port deal as a sovereignty violation.
• African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to fully withdraw by end of 2024.