Somaliland Nears Historic Recognition Deal with Ethiopia Amid Controversy

Somaliland, a self-declared independent region of Somalia, is on the brink of securing a landmark agreement with Ethiopia. The deal would recognize Somaliland as an independent state in exchange for granting Ethiopia 20 kilometers of sea access and the right to establish a military base on its coast.

The agreement, which has been in the works for months, was initiated by Somaliland's leader, Muse Bihi Abdi, and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in January 2024. The memorandum of understanding signed by the two leaders marked the first step towards a comprehensive agreement that would significantly alter the political landscape of the Horn of Africa.

Why this matters: This potential recognition of Somaliland as an independent state could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and international relations in the Horn of Africa. It may also set a precedent for other self-declared regions seeking recognition, potentially reshaping the global political landscape.

Despite the optimism in Somaliland, the deal has sparked strong opposition from Somalia's government, which considers Somaliland part of its territory. The Federal Government of Somalia has declared the memorandum of understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia as 'null and void,' emphasizing the importance of upholding Somalia's territorial integrity.

Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia on May 18, 1991, but has struggled to gain international recognition. The potential recognition from Ethiopia would mark a significant milestone for Somaliland, enabling it to engage with international financial systems and borrow from global institutions.

Somaliland Finance Minister Saad Ali Shire emphasized the economic benefits of the deal, stating, 'Berbera Port will be available for all entities, including Ethiopian business people and government to use. So, there is no need for another port to be built. ' This statement underscores the strategic importance of the Berbera Port, which offers access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

The deal also includes provisions for Ethiopia to build a military base on Somaliland's coast, with three possible sites already identified. This aspect of the agreement has raised concerns about regional security dynamics and the potential for increased military presence in the area.

As Somaliland celebrated its Independence Day on May 18, 2024, the potential deal with Ethiopia was a focal point of the festivities. President Muse Bihi Abdi and other government officials attended the celebrations, which featured military parades and public speeches. The event highlighted the region's aspirations for international recognition and economic development.

However, the celebrations were overshadowed by ongoing internal conflicts, particularly in the Sool region. Residents of Lasanod have led an uprising against Somaliland's authorities, forcing the government to vacate most of its bases in the region. Despite calls for a peaceful resolution, Somaliland has begun mobilizing troops to the frontline town of Oog.

In a bid to resolve the political impasse, President Muse Bihi Abdi has promised to hold a delayed presidential vote in November 2024. This move has been welcomed by opposition leaders and is seen as a step towards stabilizing the region and addressing internal grievances.

The potential recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia represents a significant geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa. While the deal holds promise for economic and strategic benefits, it also poses challenges related to regional stability and international relations.

Key Takeaways

• Somaliland and Ethiopia near landmark deal, recognizing Somaliland's independence in exchange for sea access and military base.
• Deal could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and international relations in the Horn of Africa.
• Somalia's government opposes the deal, considering Somaliland part of its territory and declaring the agreement "null and void."
• Recognition by Ethiopia would enable Somaliland to engage with international financial systems and borrow from global institutions.
• The deal includes provisions for a military base and access to the strategic Berbera Port, raising concerns about regional security dynamics.