El Niño Nears End as La Niña Conditions Loom, WMO Reports

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the El Niño climate phenomenon is nearing its end, with a rapid decline expected in the coming months. This transition is likely to be followed by La Niña conditions, which are characterized by cooler ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region.

The WMO forecasts a 60% chance of La Niña conditions taking hold between July and September, increasing to 70% between August and November. El Niño, known for its warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, has been linked to extreme weather events such as wildfires and tropical cyclones. In contrast, La Niña is associated with floods and droughts.

Understanding the shift from El Niño to La Niña is essential for predicting and preparing for extreme weather events, which can have devastating impacts on communities and economies. This knowledge can inform early warning systems, climate forecasts, and disaster preparedness efforts, thereby saving lives and reducing economic losses.

Despite the anticipated shift to La Niña, the WMO warns that global temperatures will continue to rise as a result of human-induced climate change. WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett emphasized, "The end of El Niño does not mean a pause in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm because of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. "

The past nine years have been the warmest on record, even with the cooling effect of a multiyear La Niña from 2020 to early 2023. Every month since June 2023 has set a new high-temperature record, making 2023 the warmest year on record globally.

La Niña, characterized by the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, can have a global impact. It typically produces opposite climate impacts to El Niño, such as drought in some regions and heavy rainfall in others. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has already factored in the expected La Niña for this year's Atlantic hurricane season, predicting four to seven major hurricanes between June and November.

The WMO's Early Warnings for All initiative aims to ensure that all regions of the world are covered by early warning systems by 2027, with a particular focus on less-equipped areas such as Africa. Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are vital tools for informing early warnings and early action to protect lives and livelihoods.

Key Takeaways

• El Niño is ending, with a 60% chance of La Niña conditions by July-September.
• La Niña brings cooler ocean temperatures, floods, and droughts, opposite to El Niño's effects.
• Global temperatures will continue to rise due to climate change, despite the shift to La Niña.
• Early warning systems and climate forecasts are crucial for predicting and preparing for extreme weather events.
• The WMO aims to ensure all regions have early warning systems by 2027, with a focus on less-equipped areas.