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France's early legislative election has started, with far-right forces leading the polls.
Voters across mainland France have begun casting their ballots in the first round of an early legislative election, which could see far-right forces take over the government for the first time since the Nazi era. This election's outcome could have far-reaching effects on European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine, and the management of France’s nuclear arsenal and global military force.
Voting started early in France’s overseas territories, with polling stations opening in mainland France at 8 a.m. Sunday (0600 GMT). The first polling projections are expected at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with early official results anticipated later that night. The two-round election process, concluding on July 7, will determine the new makeup of France's National Assembly.
Why This Matters: Many French voters are expressing frustration over inflation, economic concerns, and President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership, which they view as detached from their daily lives. Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration National Rally party has tapped into this discontent, dominating pre-election opinion polls. Additionally, a new leftist coalition, the New Popular Front, is challenging Macron’s pro-business stance and his centrist alliance, Together for the Republic.
Macron called the early election after his party suffered a defeat in the European Parliament election earlier in June to the National Rally. The far-right party, historically linked to racism and antisemitism, also maintains a hostile stance toward France’s Muslim community. Macron’s gamble aimed to mobilize moderate voters to prevent the far right from gaining power. However, pre-election polls suggest the National Rally is gaining momentum and could potentially win a parliamentary majority.
In such a scenario, Macron would likely appoint 28-year-old National Rally President Jordan Bardella as prime minister, resulting in an awkward power-sharing arrangement known as “cohabitation.” Although Macron has stated he will not step down before his term ends in 2027, cohabitation would weaken his position both domestically and internationally.
The first round results will reflect overall voter sentiment but may not indicate the final National Assembly composition. Predictions are challenging due to the complex voting system and potential tactical maneuvers between the two rounds, including party alliances and withdrawals to block far-right candidates. However, support for Le Pen’s party has grown significantly, making this election particularly pivotal.
Bardella, lacking governing experience, has stated he would use his position as prime minister to halt Macron’s supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine, aligning with his party’s historical ties to Russia.
Key Takeaways:
- France begins legislative election with far-right National Rally leading polls.
- Election results could impact European markets, support for Ukraine, and military roles.
- Macron’s early election call was a gamble to counter far-right gains.
- Complex voting system and alliances may influence final National Assembly outcome.
- Bardella plans to stop weapon supplies to Ukraine, reflecting party's Russia ties.