Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Granted Bail Amid Monarchy Insult Allegations

Thailand's political landscape was thrown into turmoil on Tuesday as influential former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was granted bail, avoiding pre-trial detention for allegedly insulting the monarchy in a 2015 interview. The billionaire, a powerful backer of the ruling government, was released on bail of 500,000 baht ($13,600) under the condition that he is prohibited from leaving the country unless granted permission.

Thaksin, who returned to Thailand last year after 15 years in self-imposed exile following his ouster from power by a military coup, denies the charges against him. The case is one of four high-profile cases involving key political players that are before the courts on Tuesday, in the latest legal wrangling that could see Southeast Asia's second-largest economy plunged into a new period of uncertainty.

The cases involve some of Thailand's most powerful politicians, including its current prime minister, and could deepen a decades-old rift between the conservative-royalist establishment and its opponents, such as the populist ruling Pheu Thai party and the opposition Move Forward party. The Constitutional Court will conduct a hearing in a case lodged by a group of senators that could potentially see Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin dismissed from office for breaching the law in appointing a lawyer with a conviction record to his cabinet.

The same court will also hear a case seeking to disband the popular opposition Move Forward Party for their campaign to amend the royal insult law, following a complaint by the Election Commission. The court is expected to announce the next hearing or verdict date for cases involving Srettha and Move Forward on Tuesday. The Constitutional Court will also rule whether the ongoing selection process for a new upper house, which started earlier this month and is scheduled to conclude in early July, is lawful.

Why it Matters : The outcome of these cases could have far-reaching implications for Thailand's political stability and economy. The country has a history of violent street protests, dissolutions of political parties, airport closures, and military coups that have hamstrung the economy. The political tensions have already rattled Thai stock markets, with the main stock index dropping to its lowest level since November 2020 on Monday. If the courts rule against the ruling government or opposition parties, it could trigger a new wave of unrest and instability.

Thai political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak notes that the country's courts have significant power to shape the political landscape. "The political parties and representatives that voters have chosen are being systematically and repeatedly stymied," he said. "A single petition can bring down a sitting, elected government or oust a prime minister."

Key Takeaways :

• Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was granted bail, avoiding pre-trial detention for allegedly insulting the monarchy.
• The case is one of four high-profile cases involving key political players that could plunge Thailand into a new period of uncertainty.
• The outcome of these cases could have far-reaching implications for Thailand's political stability and economy.
• The country's courts have significant power to shape the political landscape, with the ability to bring down a sitting government or oust a prime minister.
• Thai stock markets have already been rattled by the spectre of a political crisis, with the main stock index dropping to its lowest level since November 2020 on Monday.